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Prediction for CME (2026-03-30T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-30T03:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45395/-1
CME Note: Large partial-halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.4 flare from Active Region 14405 (S27E45) peaking at 2026-03-30T03:19Z. The source is associated with brightening, dimming, moving/opening field lines, and EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI 195, 304, 284, 131, 094, and 171 starting around 2026-03-30T02:56Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-01T11:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-01T04:24Z (-30.3h, +30.3h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:

Initial CME velocity = 1500 km/s
Background SW velocity = 500 km/s
Heliolongitude = 45 deg

Predicted Vmax = 666 Â± 341 km/s

Lead Time: 53.48 hour(s)
Difference: 7.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2026-03-30T06:00Z

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